Tuesday, November 16, 2010

"Folding Your Way to Victory" – Excerpt From a Book by Faldo!

Some say that Faldo makes the average nit look like Gus Hansen on steroids. I would like to argue that analogy, but I’m in a hand.

I have (AK sooooooted) and 53 big blinds of chips in the big blind. The Villain has 1.5 big blinds left in the small blind. The table folded around and the Villain has moved all in.

I fold. He could have (AA), right?

Ok, I exaggerated that a little bit. But let’s look at a real hand situation.

Early in a $2-$4 $400 cash game, the Hero raises to $14 with (Kc Js) from under the gun in a 5-handed game. The unknown players in the Cut-off position calls as well as the Big Blind. $42 in the pot.

The flop is a favorable [Kd Qs 6s].

The BB checks and the Hero makes the continuation bet of $40. This is a standard bet, protecting top pair against draws and extracting value from worse hands; K-X, Q-X and small pairs.

The Cutoff then re-raises to $120 and the BB folds.

Most players would call here. After all, Doyle Brunson says “You must protect your children (chips already sent into the pot).”

Faldo would not. There are too many possible holdings that have the Hero killed.

There are six combos of KQ.
Eight combos of AK.
Thirteen combos of 66, QQ, KK, AA.

Then there are the draws he could have – nine combos. Some he may not raise with, so let’s call the probability at 5 combos. Against this range of thirty-two possible hands, our hand equity is around 25%. Not so much.

What turn card would make you happy you called? You can hit a lot of cards that simply will cost you the rest of your stack.

Limit game or short stacked in a tourney – oh yeah – let’s gamble. But in a no limit cash game, I think it is smarter to wait for a better spot.

Your thoughts?


Fourputt said...

Does your new book have a chapter entitled, "pokerstars screwed me over"?

pre01 said...

The only thing worse than my golf game in the 4th quarter is my poker game. I am playing like a lobotomized gorilla. HELP!

Cigar4John said...

I had you at hello, here's one for the host, you can drink it while you sit there folded out.