Saturday, August 28, 2010

The Butterfly Effect or Chaos Theory – Part II

The basic premise of the two theories listed above is that unpredictable and undetectable events change the outcome of everything we try to predict.

The beating of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil creates the tornado in Texas a week later. If only that lizard had not moved four feet from his old spot in the field, he would have eaten that butterfly – and no tornado.

As you sit down at a poker table, you have no clue that your losing night has already been guaranteed. Because you are not at your best, you will play a little less than stellar in a few hands. But that is not why you will lose. The hands you did win have much smaller pots in it than they should have been. The drunk on his way to that same game to lose BIG, was nailed three blocks from the casino on a DUI.

The cop was there because he was put on traffic patrol duty as punishment for failure turn his reports in on time. The police officer failed to turn in his paperwork on time – after being reprimanded before – because his wife took his car instead of hers.

Why did she do that? Because she randomly arrived at the mail box with a neighbor she had not seen in a while. As they chatted, the neighbor gave the cop’s wife a coupon for 50% off a full detail car cleaning, but it was expiring soon. As a nice surprise, the wife took his car to the detailers, and they thru the piled papers away – at the wife’s request.

The neighbor was at the mailbox much earlier than normal, because her stomach was upset. As she walked from her bathroom, thru the living room to reach her kitchen sink, she saw a stray dog go #2 right by her mailbox. She decided to go out there and clean it up before anyone saw it on her property.

Feeling neurotic yet? You want to know why betting on sporting events is so hard to be successful at?

Let us get it even to a smaller level. As you sit in your poker seat, you are well aware you are not playing at you’re “A” game level. Down some, you are hoping to start a rally. Four players are in the hand as you watch.

The waitress comes by to take drink orders. A man that was going to make a weak call decides to impress the waitress he has been flirting with unsuccessfully for two hours - and makes a dramatic pot size raise. He tells the waitress, “After I win this pot, you get a BIG tip!”

Two players immediately fold. The last guy goes into the tank to sort this all out. The dealer, who had already pulled the folded cards towards the pile, expected the third man’s too, just as quickly.

As time goes on……the dealer impatiently starts “washing” the deck slightly with his free hand.

Well, that pause and that wash….just cost you the biggest pot you had ever won in this game! The cards and the subsequent shuffle will be completely different now! The hand that now doesn’t happen, not only would have pulled you even, but gave you a ton of ammo in which to bully the table to a big win this night! Even without the drunk being there.

Darn that waitress and her great rack! She got her rack enhanced because….nevermind!

My point to all this is…poker and your success at it – especially in a small window (like two years!)…is determined by things of which you have ZERO control.

All you can do is the best you can, learn as much as you can…and let the butterflies do their thing…and don’t worry about it.

That is, unless you know a way to control waitresses. Faldo wants in on that secret!


Nik Faldo said...

I know a guy who was too dumb to get out of jury duty....and ended up with a LIFE SENTENCE!!!

He married a fellow juror. Pity.

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry. I was looking at Rilpi.


Anonymous said...

I am torn. Can't decide if I want to have control over the well racked waitress or the DD(dumb donkey) who calls my all in with a gutshot. Is there any way to get him to lay his hand down? Let me in on that little secret...LOL