Ever notice how it seems that you lose with the better hand a lot more often than you win with the lesser hand?
You know why that is? Because it is true, that’s why.
If you are a better than average player, you will be all-in with the best hand many times more than you are with the lesser hand. My guess is around four times more often.
We all have to move with less than premium hands when short-stacked or we take a shot to eliminate players when we have a big stack. So that factors in too.
But my gut (no data gathered) tells me it is about a 4 to 1 ratio. Now, let’s assume my gut is correct (and hey, when is Faldo ever wrong?). If you think about it, how many times are you really bigger than a 4 to 1 favorite pre-flop or even after the flop? I think a 2 to 1 favorite is about the best you are on average.
To make the math easy for those of you who attended government schools (like me), take a look at this:
Best hand 400 times: wins 268 times – loses 132 times.
Worst hand 100 times: win 33 times – lose 67 times
There you have it. You lose four times more often with the best hand (132) than you win with the worst hand (33).
Now you can argue my gut is wrong or my favorite percentages are low, but as a bit of a stats expert, I have to tell you, you would have to move my numbers quite a bit to change the outcome of what I am saying.
If it is any consolation (which it is not when you bubble as the favorite, which I have more times than Beerhog has had a beer), of the 500 hands shown, you did win 301 times.
Wait, that is not good news is it? That means the better hand only wins 3 hands to the lesser hand’s 2.
But that is why it is called gambling – and some luck is involved. We will discuss ‘luck’ next week.
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5 comments:
One factor for this syndrome is the low stakes games guys like us play. In your typical $1/$2 no limit game you get alot of calls out of curiosity, or flat out foolishness. An excellent case in point would be a hand I watched beerhog lose a few months ago. He was all in before the flop with a significant stack and got 2 callers, one who showed K 5 suited, the other with something like K J offsuit. Naturally the yahoo with the suited 7 gapper hit his flush against Beerhog's KK. I would assume in a higher stakes game against better players the Hog's raise would have gotten some respect. This type of play, however , is exhibited over and over in today's drunken $1/$2 charity games. However over the long haul guys like us should welcome these calls where they are way ahead because they will profit in the long run. In summary, bring on the bad beats!
I'm hoping these article will be therapeutic for .....me.
Poker Stars is in one of those streaks where I lose with the best hand and lose with the slightly worse hand.
In other words, I'm running cold.
All I can do, is wait it out.
Nik - you cannot figure out the losing streak you are on?
Let me state the obvious - it's Poker Stars profile assigned to players to balance out winning and losing to suck out the juice.
Keep battling...
Herbavor
Let me also state for the record.. their were not any Iowa farmers having unprotected sex with their pigs to generate the swine flu.
To combat such virus, the state provides free condoms with their subsidies.
Herbavor
I'm losing right now - even when dominating.
AA lost to KK.
99 lost to 44 after hitting a 9 on the flop.
AK lost to AJ.
And losing all the smaller leads too. Quite a little negative run I got going on right now.
I know: "So you want some whine with that cheese?"
I just have to fight thru it. Or maybe I should take up Keno or the Lottery.
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