Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Hand Analysis by Phil Hellmuth

I was playing a $200 buy-in UltimateBet Online Poker Championship event on Sunday and was cruising against some tough competition. With 300 players remaining out of a starting field of 1,600, this interesting hand came up.

The blinds were $250-$500 with a $25 ante and I was sitting on $5,900 in chips. My table image was tight as I was playing very patiently. The player in first position was the chip leader with $42,000. He opened for $1,100. Three players folded and the action circled around to me holding Ac-9c.

Normally, this would be an easy fold for me. But the player that opened was playing a ton of hands -- about fifty percent of the hands that were dealt in the previous twenty minutes. After some deliberation, I concluded that I probably had the best hand and that my best play was to move all-in.

Everyone else folded to the player in the small blind who surprisingly reraised all-in for $21,200 -- not good for me. The player that opened the pot folded.

My opponent turned over A-Q. His hand held up and I was busted.

Let's take a closer look.

Why was the chip leader opening half the hands that were dealt to him at a full nine-handed table? That's just bad poker. He should have been protecting his lead, not trying to gamble it away!

How about the smallish $1,100 pre-flop bet? An opening bet for something like three times the big blind, about $1,500, would have been a better play.

Now here's the big question: What in the world was I thinking when I moved all-in for $5,900 with A-9 suited?

Well, I thought I had the best hand at the time. Also, I only had twelve big blinds remaining. Then again, even if I did have the best hand, there were still four players left to act behind me.

In retrospect, I should have folded instead of moving all-in. The chip leader was almost certain to call my bet. He was playing as loose as a goose. Throwing in another $4,900 would have made sense for him.

But suppose he had Q-10 off-suit? I would have been a 57% favorite to win the pot. Or he could have had K-9 suited and I would have been ahead by nearly two-to-one.

"Classic Phil" would have quickly folded his Ac-9c thinking that he should only play a big pot as the overwhelming favorite. But like everyone else, I occasionally make mistakes in the moment, especially in online games where hands are folded automatically after only a minute.

I don't like the $21,200 all-in move from the player in the small blind but I guess it wasn't a terrible play. He might have assumed that I was frustrated and anxious given the few number of hands that I had played, and as a result, that I might move all-in with a relatively weak hand. If that indeed was his logic, then he made the correct play.

Still, I do have the reputation of being a tight player. I mean, geez, I only played one hand in twenty minutes! I deserved a little more credit for having a big hand, right?

I called my friend, six-time WSOP bracelet winner Layne "Back to Back" Flack, and asked him what he thought about this hand.

According to Layne, if you're going to play A-Q in this spot, an all-in reraise is much better than a call because the big bet looks so powerful that it can force the under-the-gun raiser to fold pocket jacks or maybe even A-K. Good point, Layne.
-Phil Hellmuth

Hat tip to K9isadog for sending this along.

Faldo analysis - This is where the Gus Hanson's of the world take the tourneys. This unrelenting pressure of playing nearly every hand, makes opponents make mistakes - and doubt their own game.

The mentality for Gus is simple math: I go all-in, my opponent folds (1-0) or calls and loses (2-0). Or he wins (2-1). I'm a 2 to 1 favorite every hand!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Let's take a closer look.

Why was the chip leader opening half the hands that were dealt to him at a full nine-handed table? That's just bad poker. He should have been protecting his lead, not trying to gamble it away!

How about the smallish $1,100 pre-flop bet? An opening bet for something like three times the big blind, about $1,500, would have been a better play. -Helmuth



I am kind of amazed that Helmuth would write this. The chip leader was obviously playing small ball. That Helmuth is not familiar with this and calls it “bad poker” is puzzling to me? Is the Brat not doing his homework and losing his edge? The working theory is that if you make many smallish (2 and half x the big blind) pre flop raises you collect folded blinds (If your hand is not strong and someone pushes back you simply fold with a very minimal loss). Because you raised pre flop, you then have the slight edge when you make a ½ the pot continuation bet (Again here, if your hand is not strong and someone pushes back you simply fold with a minimal loss). The gains when your hand is strong combined with the blinds collected and the times you get a caller and then flop “lightning in a bottle” should out weigh the losses when forced to fold. Small ball works best when you are sitting as one of the larger stacks. This theory is advanced by Daniel Negreanu. This is one reason Daniel plays in more hands than most pros. Does Phil think Daniel plays “bad poker”? DD

Anonymous said...

Found this on Daniel Negreanu’s poker blog…Wonder if this is why Helmuth was railing on smallball? Hmmm? DD



"I watched the WSOP Caesar's Cup event tonight and I thought it was an entertaining show. Would be nice to have more play next time, but what you guys need to understand is that we only had one day to do it, so the structure had to be fast. Our team just didn't adjust well enough to the pace of the structure. With what should be absolutely automatic plays, our team actually made bad blunders. Ivey actually made a couple. This format doesn't exactly allow him to show off his talents. Hellmuth just butchered several hands. Back to back KJ plays were just really bad for this structure. Limping with KJ to "trap snap call" when you are the short stack just isn't good poker at all. He says, "That's the way I play," and that's also one of the reasons the kids on the forum make fun of him so often.
The next KJ was just shocking. Our team couldn't believe that he folded away 6000 in the big blind with KJ. Online players understand those situations and know that it's just impossible for it to be correct to fold against the button's raising range. We saw the amateur re-raise with K-10 out of position earlier in the match, so there is no reason to think he couldn't have K-10 again. Besides, even if he turns A-9 face up, based on our chip stack, the correct play would still have been to call.
At that stage it's not really "poker" anymore and there are plays that are clearly correct, and clearly incorrect. There isn't much room for imagination or psychology at that point. Guys like Bill Chen, Chris Ferguson, and Andy Bloch would simply never make a mistake in those situations. It's all math. Nothing more, nothing less."
-Daniel Negreanu