Misconceptions About Even the Prepared's Chances WTSHIF - part 2

That's what everyone will be saying.

Misconception number three:  Related to the second, your Bug Out Bag is probably too heavy.  The weight of BOB, judging by the long lists of stuff that many say they intend to carry exceeds fifty pounds.  Once you start walking with a heavy pack you will begin discarding most of those things you thought you “had to” have, the two pound stove, the three pound tent, the camp pad, the cute little folding shovel that weighs two pounds, three pound Rambo knife, large rope, extra clothes and so on.  How do we know, because that is what you see along the side of the uphill section of path at the beginning of the Appalachian Trail.  It looks like a yard sale.  What is not seen are matches, small knifes, water filters, light weight tarps, and freeze dried foods, and other things that are either essential or are both light weight and have multiple uses.  Consider seriously the weight of your BOB, or perhaps plan on using a shopping cart, if any are left, or pulling a child’s wagon if you “need” all your stuff. Are you in shape enough to do that? How do you know? Put on that pack and give it a dry run, or excuse me, dry walk.

Misconception number four:  Roving criminal hordes will come from the urban environment to your rural home or Bug Out Location (BOL).  Nope, these people do not play chess or even checkers; they do not plan ahead much at all.  Criminals, with few exceptions are lazy.  And many are on drugs.  Yes, a few will flee at the very beginning if they have a specific refuge in mind, the uncle with the farm, but most will not leave their familiar comfortable environment.  Even if they have an operational vehicle capable of the trip it is likely to be low on fuel, particularly these days.  They will burn up what little fuel they have driving around their usual haunts, to the liquor and drug stores, then to the convenience or grocery store like they did before the event until their tank is empty.  Walking or biking to save fuel will never cross their mind. No gas means no travel for this group.  There will be rare exceptions.

Misconception number five:  Needy hungry hordes will come from town.  Not likely, when local resources (read: booze and junk food), and the aid from whatever governmental response is exhausted they will do nothing.  By nothing I mean nothing that need concern you. They will sit in a refugee center or at home and pass the time playing cards, talking but essentially just waiting. Certainly the burning and looting that started seconds after the beginning of the event will increase until there is nothing left to burn or steal.  When food and clean bedding all run out they are not likely to walk out of town any more then than before. They are weaker by that time and as out of shape as most of us. They have rarely walked any distance at all in their adult lives and are unlikely to start now. The biggest reason is that they are psychologically predisposed, brainwashed, to wait for rescue and will stay in town.  It is easier to wait and thus easier to make hunger somebody else’s problem. With no gas and no desire to do any tiresome walking means you are not going to see many if any at your BOL.  Most will sit and if they move at all they will head for another urban area rumored to be better, particularly if they are being trucked there by the National Guard or other entity.  Aside from that with emergency response overwhelmed, weather conditions aside, the roads will be effectively impassible for days or weeks, long enough for the bad guys to consume any means of coming your way.

Misconception number six: You can live off the land.  No, you will not for long.  There are tens of thousands with that plan.  Any resource will be quickly consumed, from the deer down to the neighbor’s dog and cat, just after they eat the pet food.  Ditto for fire wood, and other flammable materials.  We do not live in the land of seemingly endless resources and few people like generations ago; we actually live in a potential Easter Island like situation - one overpopulated and thus soon stripped of everything nearby. Our accustomed lifestyle is sustained by amazing logistics and high energy use.  Nearly everything comes from somewhere else, and when that elsewhere cannot ship or pipe or haul here for whatever reason the view from your window will quickly look barren.  The heirloom seeds you have will be priceless and stored food more so.