Misconceptions About Even the Prepared's Chances WTSHTF - part I

No, the woods won't look like this WTSHTF.

 Predictions are like …belly buttons. Everybody has at least one.  Many or most predictions made are wrong and the content here is no exception.  I am not a modern day Davy Crockett or Daniel Boone but I have spent a few days in the woods, and hopefully after reading this you will not think I am still lost in them.  I did not fight in any war but had my share of the military experience and the same can be said for law enforcement.  I never bugged out but did backpack and still am a gym rat who tries to do his time on the treadmill although I hate cardiovascular exercise despite knowing it is good for me.

My present employment deals mostly with determining the penalty and hopefully rehabilitation of recently unemployed prescription drug addicts in Appalachia.  By the time they get to my shop most have literally lost everything, car, home, sometimes family, because they spend every cent they earn, and more, as soon as they get it – paycheck to paycheck and sadly pill to pill.  Their stories typically excuse their plight by blaming everyone else and rationalizing what they did as a “had to” by outside forces. Criminal records are not uncommon.  Here’s the point: I see what desperate people do and do not do when they are out of options. Contrary to what you may think most of them do nothing at all, they just shut down waiting for the “somebody else” to help them. Based upon these experiences, I propose that a few common predictions regarding TEOTWAWKI (The end of the world as we know it) or WTSHTF (When the shit hits the fan) are misconceived.  There are doubtlessly more, who’s to say, but here are seven.

Misconception number one: You are going to bug out by vehicle using some combination of car, truck or recreational vehicle (RV).  Wrong, it takes only one careless, sleepy, drugged or drunk driver to shut down any given road.  On a normal day an overturned truck or a car or two crashing effectively closes the road for half a day.  Given some major and unexpected event motivating folks to flee for the hills the interstates and minor roads will be impassible – all of them.  There are no secret roads, if you know about them so do many others.  Many hold plans of leaving “before”. When is before, how do you know and what if you are wrong? How many “Chicken Little” events will your employer tolerate? Generally speaking the odds of a sudden catastrophic event are lower than a cascade of smaller inconspicuous events ending ultimately in the need to bug out or get home. Odds are once you are sure it is time you can count on walking or maybe biking, motorized or otherwise because the masses will be in one huge traffic jam by that point.

Misconception number two: Related to the first, that you are fit enough to walk carrying the stuff you think you need.  How far is it from the stops on your daily routine to your home or refuge?  It is reality check time; when was the last time you walked five miles?  Or even walked one mile? If it was not recent then you will be in for a rude awakening if and when that eventuality occurs.  Honestly, could you walk for days? Could you do so with a heavy Bug Out Bag?  Most Americans are so badly out of shape the prospect of walking any distance is impossible. Get off the couch and go for a walk, and do so often. Maybe even carry your get home bag a bit? - B.T. - part I of III