Sometimes It’s Just Not in the Cards

I won’t go thru my own tale of woe since returning from my get away weekend with nature. I came back ready to start with a clean poker slate and a good attitude. Let me just say that the Dealer of Death was waiting anxiously for my return to the felt. It turned out to be a short visit in “Good Attitude” Village for Faldo.

But in my mail bag I found a hand I will review, instead of boring you with the stories of the TWO three outers that ran me down in consecutive tourneys. Oh wait, sorry, I just did.

Our Hero writes to say that he got crushed unfairly again. But was it that bad? Let’s look:

The blinds are 2500 – 5000, with a 500 ante, so we are late in the tourney and our NPP Hero has gone deep, as most NPP players do – twss.

Peeking to see (Ad Ah) UTG (under the gun, or the seat right in front of the blinds) our Hero bets 10000 of his 42000 stack. He is 2nd at the table in chips and I figure he is trying to coax AIPF (all in pre-flop) action from the smaller stacks.

All fold to the SB (small blind) with a stack of 20000 chips, who calls!?! An all-in or fold seems right here – unless the plan is to move all in after the flop – hit or miss. But already short-stacked and putting half his chips in, it looks like he is hoping for a call from the BB to get some pot odds with (Kh Td).

Everyone’s strategic moves matter not as the big stacked BB Villain (73000) questionably moves all-in with (6d 6h). But the blinds are high and I don’t know where these stacks are in relation to the rest of the field or tournament situation. Maybe the Villain is doing what he has to do to win it all. Maybe squeaking in the money is not on his mind as he loves being a bubble boy or being one of the big stacks.

Well, this action is just what our Hero wanted – yes? Well, for sure yes heads up and I think he has to call here, regardless. Our Hero had to know the SB was calling. But facing even two players, instead of one, (AA) falls in value.

It is a tournament and you have to go for the gusto. Here are the percentages pre-flop:

Hero (AA) – 69%
SB (KT) – 12%
BB Villain (66) – 19%

Our Hero would have been 87% vs SB and 81% vs the BB heads up respectively.

But our hero is just a little better than a 2:1 favorite here. So when the [6] spiked on the flop and turned our Hero from the solid favorite to a 9:1 dog, it was not the worst bad beat the world has ever seen.

Of course it hurt that Hero was deep in the tournament and that the hit was done by the only stack at the table that could not only bust him, but who played aggressive (or stupid) and hit. If it was another SS at the table, it would have been more understandable - and not fatal.

But as Faldo is trying to remind himself – on a daily basis – if you are going to whine about the evil deeds of the dealer of the cards, don’t play. Sometimes, it is just not in the cards for you.

So I will buy another ticket to Good Attitude Village, and I hope our Hero does too.