A player sent me this to ask if I would have played it differently. His actions are the actions taken in the article.
The blinds are 80 – 160, with a 20 ante. You have 2300 in chips, and are in middle position. A good player raises to 420 and two fold. You look down and find two black (JJ).
Do you fold, call, raise or raise all-in? A case can be made for all four options. Folding seems a little to conservative. All-in may get you another 660 chips or make you play for your tournament life. A raise might get you the 660 without risking it all, but leave you with few bullets if you do get called and you decide to let it go later.
Let’s say you call with the intent of either folding or moving in, depending on the action behind you. But there is not any and only two are left. The flop is [Qc 9c 6c], leaving us with second pair and a backdoor straight and flush draw. The original raiser checks. Remember, he is a good player.
You have 1780 chips and there is 1080 in the pot. Do you check along, make a feeler bet - or move all-in? Checking may allow you to see a turn – after which you will still have no idea where you are at. I think a feeler bet pot commits you anyway.
I would move all-in and take my chances I am not up against a flush or higher 4-card flush draw. But let’s say you check along, hoping to improve or semi-bluff on the turn. The turn is a red [A]. Now what?
Exactly the type of card I wanted to avoid with an all-in move on the flop. Mr. Tricky, who has you confused, checks again – and the same options are available to you again. What do you do? Well, that turn card leaves you with the check option or moving in now with a semi-bluff. A feeler bet again hangs you out to dry if you are called or re-raised.
The river is a red [6]. Mr. Tricky checks again. All you can do is donate if you are beat. So you better check. Our hero does exactly and is beat as he is shown (As 2s).
The lesson here is if you allow your opponents to draw out on you, they just might.
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Assuming a full table of 9 here (this looks like a Full Tilt tourney here, FWIW), in case your math is different than mine.
So with 420 (240 blinds, 180 in antes) in the pot to start, Mr. Tricky decides to do hit the "Raise/Bet Pot" option...an early position raise is worth a little consideration before making a move.
Your stack of 2300 gives you an M of 5.5 - unless you have a sick read here, you have no other choice but to push here. If you run into a cooler, that's poker - nothing you can do here. Most likely, you're up against smaller pair or 2 overs - I'll take my chances with being a 53/47 favorite in a flip here, too.
Not taking a shot on this pot at any time while in position is criminal - especially if you're trying to win here. Flop wasn't horrible for you, either, since no A or K out...once original raiser checked, a strong bet here would have pushed him out.
Next time, just jam all-in here preflop and be happy to take the blinds...and chuckle if he calls with A-2 and hits an ace to beat ya.
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